Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
